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4/13/2010 1:24:28 PM Eastern Time

Celebrating Mediocrity (Early Edition)
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

The disconnect between the stock market and Main Street has been underscored by all of the rosy articles in the press, including a glowing cover story in the current issue of Newsweek (which has become a direct PR vehicle for the White House). But we got another reminder this morning that America is not only hurting, but is moving in the wrong direction. Small businesses are hurting and taking it on the chin much the way the average person is hurting and taking it on the chin. Overnight, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton posted an 11% increase in sales driven by a "strong rebound" in Europe and the United States. The results were led by a 34% increase in watches and jewelry.

There is no way this reflects the nation. The stronger results from large businesses with global footprints and amazing power to cut salaries and pressure suppliers isn't a reflection of the state of most of the nation. Small businesses are the real backbone of this nation, the news from them this morning belies all of the rose-colored commentaries on newsstands. The headline optimism reading from NFIB was 86.8, missing consensus of 89, and under the pivotal 90 reading for the 18th consecutive month. Very few components were positive as nine out of ten declined or remained unchanged.

The NFIB Report

Additional Notes

* 11% of respondents see rising average selling prices
* 29% see a reduction in average selling prices
* -43% positive profit trends
* 15% loans are harder to get than last attempt
* 89% credit needs met or didn't want to borrow

Long Idea: Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) @ $4.34
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Trading Parameters
Entry Price	Entry Limit	Stop Loss	Trading Target	Target	Long-term Target	Options
$4.34	see comments	$3.70	N/A	$6	N/A	N/A

BACKGROUND: Cumulus Media Inc. is the second largest radio broadcaster in the United States based on station count, controlling approximately 350 radio stations in 68 U.S. media markets. In combination with its affiliate, Cumulus Media Partners, LLC, the Company believes it is the fourth largest radio broadcast company in the United States based on net revenues.

SKINNY: We like how the stock has been trading following the company's latest earnings release. In our view, the Company has set a very low bar with respect to earnings in 2010, despite there being several catalysts to drive improved results relative to 2010. Key catalysts as we think about them include spending on political campaigns and increased advertising on the part of auto dealers, who are trying to capitalize on improved conditions in the marketplace. From a valuation perspective, the stock is quite compelling given our outlook for a rebound in free cash flow in 2010, underpinned by a sales recovery, reduced interest expense, and lower operating expenses from 2010 strategic initiatives. We have a $5.80 price target on the stock, and suggest a mental stop-loss at $3.70.

Key Fundamentals
PEG	Book Value	Institutional Holdings	Price/Sales	Average Daily Volume	Shares Outstanding
0	-8.951	43	0.68	61.8K	41.62
Market Value	Insider Activity	52-week High	52-week Low	Annual Earnings Estimate
180.01M		4.23	0.45	0

Analyst Coverage
Stanford Research- Downgraded to SELL