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6/10/2010 1:41:33 PM Eastern Time

The Market Is Up…Now What?
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

Finally, there has been a break from the relentless pounding. However, is there anyone out there not worried about a rapid slide into the closing bell? Already, the market is exhibiting the same trading patterns seen on most days when there is a last hour collapse. I do like the volume, although it's not gangbusters, it is better than we've seen and pacing the biggest winners. Still, there is embedded concern about how we close, and it's becoming self-fulfilling. Technically there isn't a good reason for the market to be higher just as there has been no good reasons for some of the closing swoons experienced this week. I do think it's good that BP shares are higher because behind its evil personification it is also the face of business. If the company is forced into bankruptcy through a relentless public relations campaign it's open season on all businesses.

Grasping for straws, one could say trade balance data released today is a good news item. Imports and exports declined, but the gap increased 0.6% to $40.3 billion (consensus was $41.0 billion). Imports for April were $189.1 billion, down from $189.8 billion in March, while imports edged down to $148.8 billion from $149.8 billion.

Remainder of Session

I would consider it a moral victory if the Dow closed above 10,000. It would be great and something of a buy signal if equities could rally into the close.

Long Idea: Priceline (PCLN) @ $177.42
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Trading Parameters
Entry Price Entry Limit Stop Loss Trading Target Target Long-term Target Options
$177.42 see comments $160.00 N/A $215 $250.00 N/A
Options Trade Parameters
Type Option Symbol Entry Price Strike Price Expiration Date
Call PCLN101016C00180000 $20.50 $180.00 10/16/2010

BACKGROUND: Priceline.com Incorporated provides online travel services in 34 languages in over 94 countries in Europe, North America, Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Included in the priceline.com family of companies is Booking.com, a leading international online hotel reservation service, priceline.com, a leading U.S. online travel service for value-conscious leisure travelers, Agoda.com, an Asian online hotel reservation service and TravelJigsaw, a multi-national car hire service. Priceline.com believes that Booking.com is Europe's largest and fastest growing hotel reservation service, with a network of affiliated Web sites. Booking.com operates in over 81 countries in 31 languages and offers its customers access to approximately 86,000 participating hotels worldwide.

SKINNY: I'm not sure if it's just William Shatner overload or if the stock got ahead of itself, although I'm sure it's more of the latter than the former. The stock has been hammered pretty well and I like the risk-reward ratio here. The Street is still mixed, however, and there was even a downgrade as recently as last week. In addition, earnings estimates have been edging lower, although not dramatically. This is a company that usually executes well and whose shares are changing hands at a PEG ratio of just 0.83 times. A pivotal number is $180.00, but the big breakout comes with a close above $200.00. Although I can't say this is the exact bottom this is a classic momentum stock that runs hard once it gets going. Our three month plus price target target is $215.00, but over the next year I think this could be a $250.00 stock. On the downside, a hit to the broad market could take this stock as low as $160.00. In addition to the value proposition I think lower fuel and a stronger dollar could result in better than expected summer travel and bookings.

Analyst Coverage
 Caris & Company- Initiated BELOW AVERAGE  KeyBanc Capital Mkts- Upgraded to BUY  ThinkEquity- Initiated HOLD
     

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