After the open, there were two huge data point misses.

The April Chicago PMI number was a complete flop.

• 37.9 Actual
• 41.4 March
• 45.0 Estimate

And Consumer Confidence swooned to a read of 97 against consensus of 104.7 – with the most damage from Expectations, which collapsed to 66.4 against consensus of 74.0.

For now, the CME Fed Watch tool was indicating just one rate cut this year coming two days after the election.

Earnings Parade

After the closing bell, Amazon (AMZN) is expected to post revenue of $142.6 billion and EPS of $0.84. The stock has rallied the last three times it posted results.

AMZN Earnings

Super Micro Computer

SMCI erupted in the week after its last financial report, and the stock has rallied after five of the last six releases.

SMCI Earnings

Over the past three years, the stock has had a propensity to get severely overbought, but not severely oversold.

Then there’s Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which has struggled on days it posted results.  Consensus for the quarter has come down a lot.

Beth Kindig put out a note that since February AMD executives have sold nearly $100M in shares, with CEO Lisa Su selling ~$50M.  This is the largest cluster of sales since December 2021.

AMD Earnings

The stock looks vulnerable to the 200 days on the chart – your thoughts?

 

 

Comments

It feels like the Indicators are sliding towards Recession, and the pace is growing. P. Krueger on 4/30/2024 1:18:32 PM

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